The Sopranos Comes to a Close

Well, this post comes a few days later than I had originally planned, but I've gotten to absorb everyone else's thoughts (Slate, all the TK guests, Shuppy, et. al.), and now below are my predictions. And I agree with the smart money: Tony lives.

To start, Tony dying is too much of a tight resolution to resolve the series. David Chase doesn't do "satisfying", to address what Coop said in the comments of my last post . While I don't think he will leave everything unresolved and up-in-the-air, if Tony were to be killed by Phil Leotardo and crew, that would be disturbing and frustrating. Phil has come in too late to the series to be the guy who throws down the final solution.

That last sentence rings true for a lot of people, which is why others think Paulie has flipped on Tony and he'll be the one to stab the boss in the back. Paulie is too weak-willed and frenetic to be trusted to carry out anything of that magnitude. With Sil's death, Paulie has to know he's the #2 (to Tony's chagrin), so why would he jeopardize that to be, at best, a 5th/6th guy in the hierarchy in the New York family. Phil is no Johnny Sack.

Not only will Tony survive, but he will be alone at the top, since he got rid of Phil (somehow). As Tony realizes that he only has Paulie (the incompetent, not Machiavellian Paulie that botched the Leotardo hit) as his counsel, he will feel resigned to his position. He can't leave the mob, but he doesn't want to stay in the mob. His Faustian bargain has done him in, and he is isolated with neither Melfi nor Carmela (who has finally left him for financial security).

Quick rundown of final fates:

• AJ: Joins the Army, goes to Iraq.
• Carmela: Leaves Tony, goes into real estate
• Meadow: Patsy Parisi dies, his son takes up the business, Meadow realizes the bed she is making and leaves to live with Carmela. The Meadow dying scenarios are stupid, because David Chase would never want to associate himself with the stench of Godfather 3. That's like making a biopic of Janis Joplin and basing it on Glitter.
• Paulie: Alive and still laughing.
• Phil: Dead. As is his toadstool #2.
• The Terrorists: A red herring, never to return. Like the Russian.
• The Feds: Try to flip Tony, back to square one in the RICO case.
• Janice: Distraught, but vows to be a strong single mother.

Did I miss anything?